On our hands is a great matchup for the 2018 BBC Title Game. Jon Earl and Ethan Shula will square off in a battle between two of the most successful owners to never win a title. Continue reading for analysis of the matchup, historical significance, how they got here, and much more…
HISTORY
Earl just won his 4th playoff game. He is 4-4 all-time in the playoffs. He has now become the 3rd manager to advance to consecutive title games, joining Grant and Alex. He lost to Schindler last year in the title game by only 4 points. Earl has 5 playoff appearances, tied with Steve for most ever.
Shula just won his 6th playoff game, moving into sole possession behind Grant for most playoff wins. He is 6-3 all-time in the playoffs. He has 3 finals appearances now, tied with Grant for most ever. Shula has 4 playoff appearances, tied for 2nd with many other members.
In BBC History, Shula has won the head-to-head matchup at 5-4. They have never faced each other in the BBC playoffs. Earl has scored 102.3 points in their matchups. Earl has scored more against Shula than against any other owner. Shula has scored only 89.2 pts against Earl. They played in week 8 of this year, with Earl winning 146 to 98.
In BBC History, Earl has a winning percentage of .566 (2nd overall) while Shula is at .506. In terms of points, Earl is 6th overall with 92.7/game, Shula is 7th with 89.6/game. Shula is 5th all time in points against at 91.9, while Earl is 10th all time in points against at 88.1.
In 2018, Earl is 2nd overall in scoring at 111.5, while Shula is 5th at 91.4. Earl’s highest output was his historic 152-150 win against Josh in Week 11 to secure the BYE. Shula’s highest of the year was Week 1 when he scored 119.
Earl is looking to become the 4th 2 seed to win it all as more 2 seeds have won it all by far. Shula is looking to become the 2nd 6 seed to win it all, joining Alex’s amazing run in 2014.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
EARL
KEEPER: Earl’s keeper was DeAndre Hopkins for a 3rd Rd Pick. He has definitely earned his keeper cost, especially with his highest output of the season coming last week in the semis. He is up to 3rd overall among WRs.
DRAFT: Two years in a row Earl has traded back to secure extra picks in the 4th and 5th. Earl hit on many of these extra picks. Hit on McCaffrey in the 2nd, Kelce and Cooks in the 4th, and AP in the 7th. He also pulled out Lamar, Edelman, and Kenny G who have had their moments of success this year and helped Earl make some moves. Biggest miss in the draft was Gronk in the 2nd.
TRADES: 4 total trades for Earl this year. Earl’s best trade was getting AB from Hoober after Week 2 for Cooks/Lamar/Gronk. Cooks has been decent, but Earl decided to keep the right TE between Kelce and Gronk which swings this deal as a slam dunk for Earl. He made a terrible deal to send a 4th to Justin for Marshawn and Alshon. At the deadline he went all-in by giving up a 3rd for AJ/Goff/Ingram. Pretty crazy, but most likely none of the players he acquired for picks will start for him in the final. The only trade that has significantly boosted his roster has been the AB deal.
WAIVERS: 34 total pickups for Earl. Earl makes a living on the waiver wire. Correctly chose Breida over Alfred at the beginning of the year, who has earned multiple starts this year. Played the wire successfully in the semis with Josh Jackson and Elijah McGuire. Its looking like 2 pickups may earn a start again in the title game.
SHULA
KEEPER: Shula had arguably the best value keeper of the draft with Kamara for a 7th. He started off unbelievable, but midway through traded him to Josh for David Johnson.
DRAFT: Shula took Dalvin in the 1st, who was a bust all year, but has now been resurrected and saved Shula in R1 and carried him in the semis. Overall, he had a bad draft as he only hit on MT in the 2nd and Chubb in the 16th, who barely even counts because he dropped him before he became a star. Missed on Cooper in the 3rd, Rodgers in the 5th, and Crab in the 6th. This rough draft was one reason Shula started so slow this year.
TRADES: 4 total trades for Shula this year. Shula was the first member to trade a high pick as he sent his 3rd to Hoober for Diggs and Gronk. Gronk has been a bust this year, so looking back this was a rough trade. Moving Kamara for DJ and James White was the right move at the time as he got 2 top 15 backs for 1, and he needed to win to get into the playoffs. Once he secured a playoff spot, he bucked the trend and made the bold move to go all-in while Alex and Schindler decided to give up. He acquired JuJu and Mixon for a 2nd, and he probably wouldn’t have won either of his first 2 playoff games without that trade as JuJu went for 25 against Josh and Mixon for 24 against Steve.
WAIVERS: 20 total acquisitions for Shula. Shula has made the 2nd fewest acquisitions and no one in his core playoff starting lineup has come via the waiver wire. He has had to play waivers for a QB with Arod being a bust, so we will see if he goes Lamar or Baker in the final. He biggest blunder this year was dropping Nick Chubb.
POSITIONAL OUTPUT
Interesting enough, despite the increase in QB scoring to an all-time high, both teams in the title game have not had a strong QB all year. Both are averaging right at the league average or below. Earl must choose between Trubiskey and Goff and Shula must choose between Arod, Baker, and Lamar. Shula has gotten above average RB play most likely due to Kamara’s strong start. While Earl owns the best RB in the matchup with McCaffrey, Shula’s trio is stronger with Mixon/Dalvin/DJ. Earl dominates Shula in the WR position as Earl leads the BBC in 13.7/pts/game from his WRs while Shula is 8th at 8.3. However, Shula’s addition of JuJu upgrades his duo of MT/JuJu to be only slightly behind Hopkins/AB. Earl has lead the TE scoring all year due to Kelce at 10.2, while Shula has been below average at 5.5. Major advantage here for Earl. Earl has also been the best all year at defenses, mostly due to the Bears D at 10.0. Shula has been respectable at 8.1/pts/game. However, Earl appears to be going Titans D over the Bears D. Shula has taken forever to choose his D for this week, missing opportunities on the Colts/Pats so now it looks like he’s doing with Dallas.
FINAL THOUGHTS
With the addition of draft pick trading, the teams who make it to the title game typically have multiple stars. It will come down to which stars show up and perform. AB, Rodgers, Gronk, and Kelce are all on the top 20 list of most started players in BBC History.
Some players on both rosters have BBC title game experience. On Shula’s roster, ARod scored 32 for Hoober in 2012 and DJ scored 29 for Josh in 2016. For this year, JuJu has switched sides as he scored 13 for Earl last year but has switched to Shula for this year. On Earl’s roster, the best player in BBC History, AB, makes his 4th finals appearance, scoring 9, 6, and 15 for Alex/Grant in 2013, 2015, and 2016. Adrian Peterson helped Grant in 2015, but is not startable this year. Earl returns Hopkins, Kelce, and Ingram from his title appearance last year, but Ingram may be on the bench this go around. Also noteworthy is Earl’s decision to bench the Bears D despite them winning a title for Grant by scoring 25 in the 2012 title game.
As for Earl’s most started players, Hopkins and Kelce have both started 28 games for Earl, tied for 2nd on his list behind Dan Bailey. McCaffrey and AB also now appear on Earl’s top 10 most started players. For Shula, he is rolling out his most started player ever with Justin Tucker. Other than Tucker, none of his other players appear on his top 10 players list as Shula has assembled a group that he has limited history with.
In terms of gameflow, the matchup should stay pretty close throughout the weekend as they each have one player going on Saturday and then a similar number of players during the 1:00 Sunday slot. Earl is the only one with someone in the Sunday night game, with Kelce going and potentially a KC RB, so Earl may be down looking to come back.
Either way, it will be a matchup for the ages and by Sunday night we will have a new BBC champ to join Alex, Grant, Josh, and Schindler.
SPREAD: Jon Earl (-9.5)