Written by Eric Hoober
(3) Justin Santoro vs (6) Grant Kovac
Justin enters the playoffs for the first time since 2014, ending the longest playoff drought in BBC History. According to the stats, prior to this year Justin has been the worst manager in history with only 2 playoff berths in 8 years and the worst winning percentage in history. However, the turns have completely tabled with Justin becoming MOY after a great auction and almost no mistakes the entire year. The best season of his career has removed him from the all-time BBC basement as he now is ahead Hoober by 0.5 games to move into 9th all time in W%. He has also moved ahead of Schindler into 9th place all-time in points scored per game. Justin has the least playoff experience out of anyone with only 1 playoff win and 2 losses. He’s averaged 105.3/game in those playoff games, 4th best in history.
Justin’s roster is arguably the most-talented in the BBC with (2) top 7 RBs and (2) top 4 WRs in Jones/Robinson/Tyreek/DK and Mahomes the best QB in the league. Justin is 1st in QB scoring and 2nd in both RB and WR scoring. The biggest decisions for him this week will be between DeAndre Hopkins v. Kenyan Drake as well as which TE to start. Justin continues to hold onto Tonyan, Gronk, and Jonnu Smith as he has been disastrous at the TE spot all year, only scoring 6.0/game, worst in the BBC. Will he start the right TE?
Grant enters the playoffs for the 2nd straight year and 5th time in the last 6 years. Grant is a playoff veteran, playing in 10 career playoff games, 2nd only behind Earl all-time. Grant started off his playoff career incredibly with 7 straight wins giving him 2 titles and an appearance in another title game. However, including his title game loss in 2016, he has now lost 3 straight playoff games to come down to earth. Grant has averaged 102.3 in his playoff games, 5th best in history.
Regarding his roster, Grant has moved on from relying on the Dallas Cowboys offense like in prior years to now relying 100% on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. He may start 4 Steelers on SNF including Ben, JuJu, Ebron, and Benny Snell. While selling most of his good players to build for next year, Grant’s only big purchase ahead of the deadline was 3.6 points per game, Benny Snell. This roster doesn’t hold a candle to Justin’s as his only exciting player is David Montgomery. Grant has only averaged 95.5/game on this year and he is below league average in every positional category. He will need a miracle and multiple TDs in order to upset Justin.
Head to head, Grant and Justin have faced off 14 times in history, with Justin winning 8 of those 14 matchups. Justin has outscored Grant 95.9 to 89.5 in those matchups. They have never met in the playoffs. Most recently, Justin destroyed Grant 170.5 to 58.5 in Week 4 of this year, the most points Justin has ever scored in his career and highest week this year for anyone in the BBC.
SPREAD: Justin (-22.5) over Grant
(4) Steve Ellis vs (5) Josh Petrel
Steve is always in the playoffs. Since missing the playoffs during the first 2 years of the BBC, Steve has made it 7 straight years, the most consecutive and most playoff berths all-time. Steve is also the all-time BBC leader in wins, winning percentage, and points scored as he is 23 games over .500 and has averaged 98.0 ppg in his career. However, he always chokes in the playoffs with the worst playoff winning percentage in BBC History with a record of only 2-6 in his 8 career playoff games. And despite leading the BBC in career scoring, his points per game in the playoffs is only 95.4, the 2nd worst out of all managers.
Steve came out of the auction with all kinds of depth and has been looking for value in trades all year long. Without making a major splash, he has somehow spent all his money for next year and does not have the stars on his roster to show for it. However, Steve is one of the best at starting the right guys and with plenty of depth options he can still make some noise with this roster. His main decision this week is to start the right QB between Tannehill/Lamar/Brady. His QB play has been below league average on the year, and he’ll need to make the right choice to beat Josh. All his other positional scoring has been above average, with his total of 111.5/game good for 4th best in the BBC this year.
Josh is back in the playoffs this year after being awarded the WMOY award in 2019 for his 3-10, 10th place performance. This is Josh’s 5th career playoff appearance and first since 2018. Josh’s playoff experience is limited as he has only played in 5 career playoff games. Like Steve, he has only 2 playoff wins on his resume, however, Josh’s two wins gave him the title in 2016. Josh has averaged only 99.4 in his 5 playoff games, which is 3rd worst of all managers, right above Steve. Josh’s all-time winning percentage is 4th highest, and he is 3rd overall in points per game.
Despite finishing in 10th last year, Josh didn’t roll over any extra money into this year’s auction. Quickly after the auction, Josh tried to catch up to the top teams in the league by spending all of next year’s money on CMC and Chubb. While going all-in, he has put together the 3rd-most talented roster in the BBC behind Justin and Shula. He has (2) top 5 backs in CMC and Chubb, and (2) top 10 WRs in AJB and Julio. He will have a decision to make every week at flex between Lockett/Claypool/DJ/Gaskin/Mostert/Ahmed/whoever else he bought with all his money and can’t start. Josh is above average in every positional category except for WR, which is typical for him. He now probably has the best duo of WRs he’s ever had in his career, which should help him this playoffs. Josh scored 106.3 ppg during the year, good for 5th most in the BBC, which lines up with him being the 5 seed.
Head to head, Josh and Steve have faced on 14 times in history. They have split all 14 of these matchups with 7 wins apiece, however, Ellis has outscored Josh 100.8 to 95.4 in their matchups. They have met one time in the playoffs, Josh beat Steve 103-94 in the 2016 semifinals en route to his championship. Most recently, Josh dominated Steve 109-68 during Week 9 of this year. Both of these teams have gone all-in, spending all of next year’s money, but one will be going home without even winning a playoff game.
SPREAD: Josh (-4.5) over Steve