Before us is a historical matchup for the 2020 BBC Title Game between one of the most successful owners in history and arguably the worst owner in history. On one hand, Steve looks to shake off the demons of past playoff failures and win his 1st title to pair with his dominance in the regular season. On the other hand, Justin looks to shake off his 5 year playoff drought and terrible all-time winning percentage with his 1st title win. Continue reading for analysis of the matchup, historical significance, how they got here, and much more…
HISTORY
Justin just won his 3rd playoff game, moving past Josh and putting Josh in the basement with the least playoff wins all-time at only 2. Justin has the least playoff experience of any owner with only 5 games under his belt, an overall record of 3-2 in the playoffs. Justin started his BBC career on the right track, making the playoffs 2 out of his first 3 years and advancing to the semifinals in 2013. However, since 2014 and his Marques Colston 2nd Round pick, Justin has been an awful manager, missing the playoffs 5 straight years even though he was up assets going into each year. Going into the 2020 season, Justin had the worst winning percentage, least points scored average, and least playoff appearances of any owner. However, Justin completely flipped the script in 2020 with a 9-4, MOY, season and a shot at the title. He has climbed above Hoober to move into 9th all-time in winning percentage and also climbed above Schindler to move into 9th all-time in points per page scoring. On the plus side, he has averaged 109.4 in his 5 playoff games, which is more than any other BBC owner. Justin was the last owner (excluding Tom) to make it to a BBC title game.
Steve has now advanced to back-to-back title games and boosted his playoff record to 4-6, up to the middle of the pack rather than his previous spot in the basement. Historically in playoff games, Steve was at the bottom in terms of playoff scoring, but his red hot start to the 2020 playoffs has boosted his playoff scoring average up to 106.2, 5th highest all-time. No owner has been more successful in the regular season with a record 7 straight playoff berths, the best all-time winning percentage, and the highest points per game scoring average. It should be noted that Steve leads the BBC in points against scoring per game all-time, it is very difficult to score points against Steve.
In BBC History, the head-to-head record is completely lopsided. Steve has won 11 of 13 matchups against Justin in history, which is the most domination from one owner over another in BBC History except for Earl being 9-0 against Tom. In their H2H matchups, Steve has averaged 103.1/game while Justin has only averaged 85.5/game. They played twice this year, with Steve winning both matchups, 107.5 to 87.5 in Week 4 and 142.0 to 112.0 in Week 13.
This year, Justin was 2nd in scoring at 120.5/game and Steve was 4th at 116.6/game. Once again Steve led in points against scoring at 100.1, and Justin was also close to that at 103.2. Both owners benefitted from little points against in 2020. Justin’s highest output was his 170.5 point performance in Week 5. Steve’s highest of the year was last week in the semifinals, scoring 152.0.
This is the first time in history a 3 and 4 seed have met in the final and only the 2nd time in history that neither of the teams with BYEs made the final. Justin is looking to become the 1st 3-seed to win it all and Steve is looking to become the 2nd 4-seed to win it all.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
JUSTIN
KEEPER: Justin’s keeper was Aaron Jones for $44, which was middle of the road value. He has earned his keeper cost, as he has been the 5th best RB in fantasy and a part of the reason for Justin’s success.
AUCTION: Justin had the best auction/draft in his career and did the best out of any BBC owner. While he did go in with a lot of extra ammunition due to being up extra money, he decided to skip overspending on the top backs and instead got value in top WRs Tyreek and Hopkins for $60 and $65. His major hit was DK Metcalf for $3 who has been a top 5 WR. He also got the best QB in fantasy for only $27. Only slight disappointment has been Kenyan Drake for $53, but he actually has been a decent RB2 this year and wouldn’t classify that as a miss.
TRADES: Justin only made 3 trades all year, least in the BBC as he patiently waited to fill his RB2 hole. He put his team over the top by swindling James Robinson from Shula, acquiring the top 10 back he needed for only $50. He also spent $10 on Jonnu Smith and $15 on Jamaal Williams.
WAIVERS: 17 total pickups for Justin, also least in the BBC this year. Justin’s biggest and best acquisition this year was picking up Robert Tonyan on December 4th for $7 after Shula dropped him. Tonyan is the next best TE option after Kelce/Waller/Andrews, meanwhile Shula started Dallas Goedert in his playoff lineup. Outside of Tonyan, Justin may need to rely on two recent pickups, Leonard or JD Mckissic, to fill the void of Robinson’s injury.
STEVE
KEEPER: Steve has gotten great keeper value and production from Alvin Kamara for only $17. He debated on keeping Lamar Jackson, but ending up making the right call keeping Alvin.
AUCTION: Steve had only about $100 going into the auction less than 5 other teams by a good margin. True to his style, he stayed far away from the expensive options and settled on value-only picks, spending his highest amount $26 on DJ Moore. He got incredible value on Jonathan Taylor for $17, A-Rob for $15, Thielen for $13, and Woods for $11 when everyone else was out of money. There were no bad investments in the auction and he left with more depth than anyone, but had only 1 star in Alvin.
TRADES: 14 total trades for Steve this year, 2nd in the BBC. He started off with a big splash on auction night, spending $70 for Josh Jacobs to give him a 2nd top RB. Next, he reinvested in Lamar Jackson for $28, which was good at the time but probably regrets now. That would be the story of Steve’s trading year as he sought value deals that were fine on paper at the time, but then didn’t work out. Examples include spending $50 on Conner but selling him for $20 and spending $40 on Swift. Add it all up and Steve spent all of his 2021 money, so he went all-in this year, totally out of character for him. Steve also had the biggest blockbuster deal of the year, a 7 player deal with Tom to acquire Kelce/Sanders/Ridley in exchange for Waller/Jacobs/Arob/Thielen. This deal benefitted both sides and all 3 of Steve’s players he acquired will most likely appear in the title game.
WAIVERS: 34 total acquisitions for Steve, 5th-most in the BBC this season. Steve did not really need the waiver wire this year due to his depth and he won’t be relying on any waiver wire additions in the title game. He is still scarred from his Mike Boone plug and play from last year’s title game.
POSITIONAL OUTPUT
Justin has had great QB play all year due to Mahomes, averaging 23.3/game, 2nd in the BBC. Steve has had a spinning wheel of QBs this year, he has been in the bottom 3 of QB scoring at only 19.0. In terms of RB scoring, Steve has been 2nd in the BBC this year at 14.0 with Justin right behind him at 13.4 in 3rd place. Justin has led the BBC in WR scoring all year at 16.1, but Steve is right behind him in 3rd place at 13.2. Due to Waller/Kelce, Steve has had good TE production at 12.2. Justin, on the other hand, has been the worst TE manager of the playoff teams this year at only 6.5/game. Both have been middle of the pack for defense and kicker scoring.
In terms of lineup decisions, Justin has only 1 really major decision and that is at RB2. He will be deciding between Robinson/Leonard/JD Mckissic depending on the injury and COVID status of multiple players. For Steve, he needs to choose 2 backs out of Taylor/Sanders/Swift and sit one of them. Neither of these are easy decisions, but could really have an impact on the game. Steve considered picking up new league sensation Jalen Hurts but went with the safer play in Lamar Jackson.
FINAL THOUGHTS
With the addition of draft pick trading, the teams who make it to the title game typically have multiple stars. This year only produced 2 true superteams between Justin and Shula, with only Justin making it the final due to Shula choking. Despite not having a high-end superteam, Steve has had a legitimate shot to beat anyone this year due to great depth and Alvin/Kelce/Ridley. Like always, it will come down to which players show up and perform.
Some players on both rosters have BBC title game experience. On Steve’s roster, Kelce now has the most title game experience in BBC History as this is his 5th title game and 4th straight, however he has not had much of an impact averaging only 7.7/game in the championship. Kelce’s highest title game output was last year scoring 13 for Alex. Steve’s only other position player with title game experience is Lamar Jackson, who scored 28 for Steve last year in a losing effort, the 7th highest individual performance in a title game. For Justin, he only has DeAndre Hopkins who is playing in his 4th straight title game as well! Like Kelce, he has underperformed in the title game, averaging only 8.0/game in his 3 appearance and laying an egg last year for Alex with only 2 points. Both players are starting defenses who have been in the title game before. Steve is going Bears D who put up 25 to give Grant the title over Hoober in 2012. Justin is going Ravens D who scored 7 for Schindler against Earl in 2017.
Of players playing in this title game, Kelce and Hopkins appear on the BBC’s top 20 most started players in all-time history. As for Justin’s most started players, Hopkins has now started 18 games for Justin, 8th on Justin’s most started players list. For Steve, he has Lamar who has now started 22 games for Steve in his career, 5th on Steve’s most started players list all-time.
Either way, it will be a matchup for the ages and by Sunday night (depending on Justin’s kicker), either way, we will a new BBC champ to join Alex, Grant, Josh, Schindler, and Earl.
SPREAD: Justin Santoro (-3.5)