Before us is a historical matchup for the 2019 BBC Title Game between 2 of the original members of the BBC. On one hand, Alex looks to become the first owner to ever win 3 titles, and on the other hand, Steve looks to shake off the demons of past playoff failures and win his 1st title. Continue reading for analysis of the matchup, historical significance, how they got here, and much more…
HISTORY
Alex just won his 6th playoff game, moving into a tie for second-most playoff wins in history with Shula and Earl, but behind Grant. These 4 owners have all won 6+ playoff games and the next closest owner has only won 3. Alex is 6-2 all-time in the playoffs, the best playoff W% in history. Alex started his BBC career as the most successful owner, making the playoffs in 4 straight years and winning consecutive titles in 2013 and 2014. However, since that playoff run, Alex has been terrible, missing the playoffs in 3 straight years before breaking through again in 2019. He is now up to 5 playoff appearances, tied for second all-time in history. This is Alex’s 3rd appearance in the title game, tied with Grant and Shula for most title game appearances. In playoff games, Alex has averaged 106.9/game.
Steve just won his 2nd playoff game, after numerous choke jobs in previous years. His playoff record is now up to 2-5, one of the worst in the BBC. This is the first time in history Steve has advanced to the final, leaving only Tom and Justin as the only BBC members never to make it this far. In playoff games, Steve has only averaged 95.1/game. Despite the lack of playoff success, no owner has been more successful in the regular season with a record 6 straight playoff berths and the best all-time winning percentage.
In BBC History, the head-to-head record is dead-even at 6-6. They have never faced each other in the BBC playoffs. Despite the even H2H record, Alex has scored 91.4/game in their matchups while Steve has only scored 83.2. Steve has scored less against Alex than against any other owner that he has faced by far. They played in week 9 of this year, with Alex winning 120-92.
In BBC History, Steve has a winning percentage of .586 (1st overall) while Alex is at .554 (3rd overall). Both of these owners along with Earl are the only owners in history to be more than 12+ games over .500 all-time. In terms of points, Steve is 1st overall with 96.4/game, Alex is 6th with 92.0/game. Alex and Steve are both tied for 10th all-time in points against at only 89.2, it becomes very difficult to score against these owners.
In 2019, Alex is 1st overall in scoring at 110.6, while Steve is 3rd at 102.9. Alex’s highest output was his historic 177 point performance in Week 1. Steve’s highest of the year was Week 6 when he scored 141.
This is the first time in history both 1 and 2 seeds have met in the final. Alex is looking to become only the 2nd 1-seed to win it all. Steve is looking to become the 5th 2-seed to win it all, as more 2-seeds have won it all by far.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
ALEX
KEEPER: Alex’s keeper was CMC for a 1st Rd Pick, after acquiring him from Earl for only a 7th. He has definitely earned his keeper cost, as he has been the best RB in fantasy and a major reason for Alex’s success.
DRAFT: Alex had the best draft in BBC history. While he did go in with a lot of extra ammunition due to being up extra picks, he nailed basically every single one. Hit on Hopkins in the 1st, Kelce in the 2nd, Jacobs, Cooper, and Henry in the 3rd, Lockett and Watson in the 5th, and even James White and Allen Robinson later on. Only disappointment was Robert Woods in the 4th, but not even close to a miss. To hit on that many picks in unprecedented and the main reason for his success.
TRADES: 4 total trades for Alex this year. Only 1 of these was significant, which was the controversial decision to spend $100 on Saquon Barkley. While some will never agree with it, Saquon put up a big performance in the semi and will have to play in the final due to Jacobs’ injury. Perhaps Alex’s best decision was when he decided not to sell Henry in the middle of the season. Justin and Hoober were after him hard and Alex hated Henry and was ready to sell, but he had a change of heart and now Henry is a top 3 back. Alex had no reason to do much dealing at all this year since his team was stacked coming out of the draft.
WAIVERS: 26 total pickups for Alex. Alex has made the 2nd fewest acquisitions and no one in his core playoff starting lineup has come via the waiver wire.
STEVE
KEEPER: Steve has gotten absolutely nothing from his keeper as JuJu has been an utter disaster. There was questionable value here to begin with as he cost a 3rd to keep, but Steve was down assets in the draft and was looking for any value he could.
DRAFT: Steve was down picks in the draft due to building a superteam in 2018, thus he moved out of the 1st to gain more picks. Steve did not fare particularly well in the draft as he chose Odell over Tyreek and Michael Thomas and Devonta Freeman over Ingram and Henry. His only real hit in the meat of the draft was Mike Evans in the 2nd. However, Steve salvaged his bad draft with perhaps the most important draft pick in BBC History by taking Lamar Jackson in the 15th Round. Steve is historically good at finding gems in the back of the draft as he drafted James Conner the year before. It is incredible the season that Steve has had despite only hitting on Mike Evans and Lamar in the draft. The reason that Steve is here is due to Lamar Jackson.
TRADES: 10 total trades for Steve this year. He started off with a great move to flip Evans for Chris Carson and bolster the gaping hole in his RB room. He bought low on Leveon at the time, and was able to win a couple games because of it. Steve was perhaps more reluctant than any owner to pay the high prices on the auction money market, as he religiously stuck to the value chart on the BBC website. His patience paid off for him as he snagged Gurley and Adams at a cheap discount right before the deadline, and he wouldn’t be here today if not for those moves. His only questionable trade was giving up $19 for D. Montgomery, but other than that all trades he has made have worked out.
WAIVERS: 41 total acquisitions for Steve, 3rd-most in the BBC this season. Steve has had to play the waiver wire all year long as he has had multiple holes in his lineup throughout the season. In the title game, he is looking to rely on 2 recent pickups, Mike Boone and Michael Gallup. The addition of Boone with $0 waiver dollars has potential to win Steve the championship with Dalvin out.
POSITIONAL OUTPUT
Due to Lamar Jackson, Steve has had the best season at QB in BBC history, avging 26.1/game. Alex has been using Watson most of the year, and averages a respectable 19.1. Alex has led the BBC in RB scoring all year at 15.9, which is the 4th best RB season in BBC history. Steve is right at league average RB play at 11.1. Alex has gotten strong WR play all year at 10.0, however Steve has struggled all year at the WR position, only scoring 8.3. Alex has led the BBC in TE scoring due to Kelce at 8.9, but Steve has had good TE play all year as well with Henry and Engram combining to average 7.6. Playing the right defense has been Alex’s only kryptonite all season as he’s been the worst in the BBC at only 6.1, a full 1.1 points/game behind Tom in 9th. He only got 5 points from Niners D last week. He has a tough choice this week between Niners and Broncos, but it looks like he is leaning Niners at this moment. On the other hand, Steve has been 3rd in the BBC in D/ST scoring at 11.1. However, he has been rolling with the Bills D all year who has a tough matchup this week on the road in NE, so the D/ST matchup may swing towards Alex this week. Kickers for both squads have been basically neutral so nothing to discuss there.
In terms of positional decisions, Alex’s RB decision has already been made for him with Jacobs being OUT, thus his only tough call is which defense to start as discussed above. Steve has some harder decisions as he has a major hole at WR2. Gallup/Odell/Boyd are all in the discussion and it is a true tossup between all 3 of those bums. If Mattison is plays, Steve will face a decision between Boone and Le’Veon, but otherwise Boone is a must-start.
FINAL THOUGHTS
With the addition of draft pick trading, the teams who make it to the title game typically have multiple stars. This year only produced 2 superteams, with only Alex making it the final due to Hoober choking. Despite not having a superteam, Steve has had a legitimate shot to beat anyone this year due to Lamar Jackson. Like always, it will come down to which players show up and perform. Of players playing in this title game, only Kelce and Hopkins appear on the BBC’s top 20 most started players in history.
Some players on both rosters have BBC title game experience. Alex’s roster is somewhat similar to Earl’s roster from prior title games, with CMC, Hopkins, and Kelce all playing for Earl in recent memory. Kelce has the most experience as this is his 4th title game and 3rd straight, however he has not had much of an impact scoring only 3, 10, and 5 in each of his appearances. Hopkins is appearing in his 3rd straight title game, scoring 10 and 12 for Earl each of the last 2 years. Also on Alex’s roster, CMC scored 17 for Earl in 2018. On Steve’s side, Gurley has the most title game experience, scoring 38 for Schindler in 2017, 14 for Josh in 2016, and 13 for Shula in 2015. JuJu, Odell, and Le’Veon have all made title game appearances in the past, but it is unlikely whether any will get the start for Steve this year. Gurley’s 38 in 2017 is the 2nd most points ever in a title game and Odell’s 26 in 2014 is the 7th most.
As for Alex’s most started players, Kelce has started 24 games for Alex and Hopkins has started 19, which are 2nd and 5th on Alex’s most started players listed, respectively. For Steve, he has had a love affair with Odell his whole career, starting him 24 times, 3rd-most on Steve’s list, however, it doesn’t appear he will get the nod in this year’s title game. Other than Odell, none of his other players appear on his top 10 players list as Steve has assembled a group that he has limited history with.
In terms of gameflow, Alex will most likely jump out to the early lead with the Watson/Hopkins due on Saturday at 1pm followed by Niners D on Saturday night, while Steve only has Gurley and Bills D on Saturday. Additionally, Alex will be in the lead after the Sunday 1pm games as Steve has many late games on Sunday. Steve will be looking to come back on MNF with Davante Adams and Mike Boone on each side of the ball, he will be hoping it is close enough to have a shot going into that game.
Either way, it will be a matchup for the ages and by Monday night, either we will have our first 3-time champ or we will have a new BBC champ to join Alex, Grant, Josh, Schindler, and Earl.
SPREAD: Alex Scott (-12.5)